UPDATE: Latest On Major Weather Event

FORECAST UPDATE: Dangerous Weather System Next 72 Hours

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY 8:00AM EDT

Latest satellite images show the beginning stages of the upper level Low-pressure system starting to tap deep tropical moisture.  It clearly will lock into Hurricane Joaquin moisture as the storm moves to the north.  This will aid in the development of heavy rain.

I’ve also noticed a small surface Low developing over the SC/GA state line.  This could help develop thunderstorm and or high winds tomorrow.

We need to add this risk of thunderstorms as the air mass becomes unstable.  This would include (although very low) risk of tornadoes.

I believe the wedge-like conditions will break allowing for warmer air to lift into the midlands Saturday and Sunday.  It should be noticeably warmer.

Here is the latest as of Friday evening:

An area of Low pressure in the upper layers of the atmosphere is in South Georgia.  The Low will tap deep tropical moisture.  This is moisture that comes n all the way from the eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean.

The storm will be slow to move and will produce extremely heavy rainfall over much of South Carolina with the central midlands receiving the brunt of the rain.  The rain along with the wind will be so heavy at times it will cause whiteout conditions.

Expect widespread significant flooding.  Areas that never see flooding may indeed experience serious flooding conditions. Rainfall rates of 2”-3” per hour (FOR SEVERAL HOURS) could occur.

Rainfall amounts Friday – Monday:

Northern Midlands and the Upstate:  Generally 6” – 10” (some areas 14”+)

Central Midlands:  Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 16”)

Southern Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 14”-17”)

Costal Areas: Generally  6” – 12” (some areas 18”)

I would expect Flash Flood Warnings to be issued during the day.

The system will have some wiggle room and there will be tweaks to the forecast.

I’ll have another update before 5AM Saturday.

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Twitter:  TimMillerSC

Email:     tmiller@wistv.com

Major Weather Event Friday-Sunday

HISTORIC WEATHER EVENT COMING TO SOUTH CAROLINA

What has the potential to take place in our state over the next 72 hours is beyond anything I’ve ever seen in my career.

NOW is the time to prepare for a life-threatening conceivable catastrophic rain event.  The potential for Flash Flooding of epic proportion is extremely high.

Here is the set-up:

An area of Low pressure in the upper layers of the atmosphere will move into the southeast, it will position itself in south Georgia by tomorrow afternoon.  The Low will tap deep tropical moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic…this will allow for rain to develop as the storm feeds on the moisture.  The storm will be slow to move and will produce extremely heavy rainfall for hours on end.  A forcing mechanism will feed in to the system providing all it needs to produce torrential rain.

As Hurricane Joaquin moves north, the system will tap some of Joaquin’s moisture as well, again, helping the system produce more rain.  Depending on the track of Joaquin IF it makes landfall in North Carolina, this could add even MORE rain to the forecast (IF that would happen, this would be a cataclysmic event resulting in widespread death and destruction)  My thinking is the Hurricane will remain to our north.  However, just tapping into the moisture from Joaquin will make a bad situation worse.

Expect widespread significant flooding.  Areas that flood with a 2”-4” rainfall from summer storms will be completely underwater with this storm.

The interesting thing is that most all of the models have not shifted from these record rainfall amounts and have been very consistent with each run.

Rainfall amounts Friday – Monday:

Northern Midlands and the Upstate:  Generally 6” – 10” (some areas 14”+)

Central Midlands:  Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 18” – 22”)

Southern Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 14”-17”)

Costal Areas: Generally  6” – 12” (some areas 18” – 22”)

Average YEARLY rainfall for Columbia: 49.00”

It is VITAL that you pay close attention to the forecast.  Those that know me…know that I’m not alarmist.  I’ve never forecasted as such. Therefore, when I stress this has the potential to be life-threatening.  Please take this seriously.

There will be many updates with this storm.  I will provide you with the latest information I have. 

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Twitter:  @TimMillerSC

Email: tmiller@wistv.com

7:00PM EDT European Model: