Saturday, April 25, 2015

Severe Weather Saturday

Another weekend for the potential of severe weather across the midlands.

Here is the set up: 

Strong low pressure to our west will pump plenty of Gulf moisture into the state as a warm front attached to the system moves through the midlands during the day.  The front creates what is called “isentropic lift” bringing us warm more humid air, the atmosphere will become unstable and the movement of this air is hauling extremely fast which adds to “shear”…this is a change in direction of the air the higher you go in the atmosphere.  In order to get severe weather and tornadoes, you must have wind shear.

I believe there will be two bouts with severe weather today (or the chance of severe storms) the first is midmorning as storms move in from Georgia along with the warm front, the second is late this afternoon into this evening as the air becomes very unstable due to even greater lift and a bit of drier air in the upper layers of the atmosphere. 

The entire system moves out by early Sunday and behind the cold front we’ll see mostly sunny skies and much warmer temperatures.  Warmer temps behind the cold front?  Yes!  We’ll have what is called “down sloping”  This is air that moves down from the Appalachian mountains, it warms quickly and the air mass becomes stable allowing things to settle down.  Down slopping won’t last too long as we’ll be in the middle 80s Sunday to the lower 70s Monday.

What I’m Looking For Today:

A few thunderstorms that develop this morning and late afternoon could reach severe limits and we would expect:

-       Hail
-       Damaging Winds (more than 60mph)
-       Heavy Rain (potential flash flooding)
-       Dangerous Lightning
-       Tornadoes

Severe storms happened quickly and often with very little notice.  I've attached a map of the severe weather outlook for today.  South Carolina is in the slight risk yellow.

Keep close to my twitter and our website (along with the WIS weather app) for the latest.


@TimMillerSC    wistv.com



Sunday, February 15, 2015

Winter Weather: UPDATE

The dynamics have changed with the storm and storm track.  It’s looking like the storm gets wound up over the Mississippi valley by Monday and moves quickly through the southeast and up the coast and out by early Wednesday morning. My thinking is this will be more of a cold rain for much of the central and southern midlands, with a chance of freezing rain and sleet Monday night and rain/freezing rain/Light snow far northern midlands.

Here is my current forecast:

Monday

Most of the day will be cloudy, cold and dry.  Winds will pick up a bit during the day making it a raw day.  Rain will develop by late afternoon and evening.  Highs in the upper 30s.

Monday Night

Widespread rain will develop across much of the midlands. There should be an area of slightly warmer air in place (warmer is a relative term here) through the midlands to keep much of the precip rain.  The line between warmer and colder air is very thin.  Meaning, counties north and northeast of Richland and Lexington counties will see a chance of freezing rain and sleet...ice accumulations will be a tenth of an inch at best

This looks more and more likely to be a cold rain event for much of us.

The track of the storm is the biggest factor as to who sees what type of weather and may change over the next 24 hours


Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy with periods of rain, highs in the lower 40s

Wednesday - Friday

Skies clear and it gets cold!  Highs upper 30s Wednesday to Middle 30’s Thursday.  Lows fall to the low teens Wednesday night with wind chills perhaps in the single digits.

Uncertainties continue with this storm, as they tend to do this time of year here in our state.  More updates to follow.
If you have any questions, love to hear them!  Email me:
tmiller@wistv.com




Friday, February 13, 2015

Winter Weather: It's Our Turn!

The long wait for those that love winter weather may be over!  Now, with that said, we won’t have a snow like we saw November 1st however, the next several days will include everything that winter can throw at us.

Here is my current forecast:

Saturday

Enjoy tomorrow!  It will be the warmest day we’ll see for a week.  Southwest winds will be gusty ahead of a cold front giving us much warmer temperatures, near 60˚ by early afternoon.  That comes to an end as a dry cold front moves through the state by evening, temperatures will fall and wind chills could dip to the lower teens as arctic air takes hold.

Sunday

Arctic air and high pressure will lead to a very cold day.  Under sunny skies we’ll be lucky to see upper 30s.  Any wind will cause a wind chill in the teens most of the day (Winds will be from the Northwest 5-10mph.

Monday

This is the point where things get very tricky to forecast.  There are a number of variables that could change and most likely will, having me make changes as we move along.

Cold air will remain in place as I believe a “wedge” will develop late Sunday/Monday morning time frame.  Low pressure will form in the Gulf and begin to spread moisture over the southeast. The air mass over us will be very dry and it will take awhile for the air to moisten as the storm system tries to wet the atmosphere.

Monday Night/Tuesday

The storm system moves out of the Gulf giving us rain and a chance of light freezing rain late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  As temperatures warm (slightly) highs in the lower 40s, it all turns to rain midday Tuesday. Not thinking we’ll have ice accumulation on the roads, the ground remains too warm however, some elevated surfaces (bridges) could receive a light glaze.

As temperatures begin to fall Tuesday night rain could be mixed with snow then turning to all snow briefly (little or no accumulation)

Light snow and flurries will continue into Wednesday morning, little accumulation across the midlands, 1” of snow Chester County northward.  Temperatures will be in the middle 40s as the storm system pulls away from the state.

Considerable Uncertainties

-       The track of the storm
-       Cold air at the surface and in the upper layers of the atmosphere
-       If wedge develops and if it does, how strong

This will clearly be a forecast that will be tweaked over the next 36 hours.  I’ll be updating the blog so bookmark it so you can get the latest information.
If you have any questions, love to hear them!  Email me:
tmiller@wistv.com



Saturday, February 15, 2014

What Is An Earthquake?

What a week!  First, an unprecedented winter storm now an earthquake!
The big question everyone is asking today, is this rare for South Carolina to have earthquakes?  The answer is no, not at all.  The crazy thing is having an earthquake after this huge winter storm we’ve just been through…by the way, there is NO relation to the winter storm and the earthquake however, Mother Nature’s timing is simply hilarious!  The fact is one of our nations most damaging quakes took place in Charleston (7.3 magnitude) in 1886 destroying nearly the entire city. 
What Is An Earthquake?
Let me give you the Readers Digest version. An earthquake is essentially a vibration inside the Earth that produces shock waves resulting from a sudden movement along a fault line (more on that in a second) the energy released in the quake moves in waves outward in widening circles.  It’s like when you throw a rock in a pond and you see the ripples…the strongest “ripple” is near the center and it moves out from there.  The center of the “ripple” is called the epicenter, which is directly above the focus of the earthquake.
The “Weather” (what’s happening in the atmosphere at this point in time) is always moving and changing, we can easily see and study the atmosphere however, the earth itself is also moving and changing, we just can’t see that happening like we can the atmosphere.
The solid part of the Earth is called the  “Lithosphere,” it’s the inorganic part of the Earth comprising of the crust, minerals, rocks, bedrocks and all types of landforms.  The continents have moved, collided, merged and have been torn apart over millions of years, this still continues today.  Believe it or not, it’s only been in the last 50 years or so that scientist have come to understand how all this actually happened. There is undeniable evidence to support the movement of “plates” in the earth, these plates are moving the continents.  There are 16 different “plate” boundaries around the earth, they are movin and groovin VERY slowly…we’ll get into all of that some other blog.
 A “Fault” is a breaking apart of the Earth’s rock structures. There are a number of different types of faults and they are located all over the Earth.  Faulting takes place along a weakness in the crust of the Earth. The “Crust” of the earth varies. Over land goes down about 40 miles over the oceans about 4 to 5 miles.  The weakness is called a fault zone and where the breaking of the rock structure meets is called a fault line.  It’s the movement of the crust along the fault zone that can produce a sudden rupture…the earthquake.
South Carolina and the entire east coast has numerous small and deeply buried faults. Our faults are not like those out west closer to plate boundaries, there, they can name the faults (San Andreas is a good example)  earthquakes out west happen more frequently.  The type of soil plays a factor in whether or not you feel an earthquake. South Carolina is located on bedrock where places such as the Ohio Valley, known for earthquakes (New Madrid Fault) the soil is loose and sandy.
The cause of our earthquake? Several theories are coming out.  I would say it has more to do with our relation to the Appalachian Mountain chain.  It could easily be some break in sedimentation and rocks that caused the Earth to “move” at the point under Edgefield.
Twitter:    @TimMillerSC

Facebook: TimMillerWis-Tv
SOUTH CAROLINA FAULT LINES: