FORECAST UPDATE: Dangerous Weather System Next 72 Hours
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY 8:00AM EDT
Latest satellite images show the beginning stages of the upper level Low-pressure system starting to tap deep tropical moisture. It clearly will lock into Hurricane Joaquin moisture as the storm moves to the north. This will aid in the development of heavy rain.
I’ve also noticed a small surface Low developing over the SC/GA state line. This could help develop thunderstorm and or high winds tomorrow.
We need to add this risk of thunderstorms as the air mass becomes unstable. This would include (although very low) risk of tornadoes.
I believe the wedge-like conditions will break allowing for warmer air to lift into the midlands Saturday and Sunday. It should be noticeably warmer.
Here is the latest as of Friday evening:
An area of Low pressure in the upper layers of the atmosphere is in South Georgia. The Low will tap deep tropical moisture. This is moisture that comes n all the way from the eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean.
The storm will be slow to move and will produce extremely heavy rainfall over much of South Carolina with the central midlands receiving the brunt of the rain. The rain along with the wind will be so heavy at times it will cause whiteout conditions.
Expect widespread significant flooding. Areas that never see flooding may indeed experience serious flooding conditions. Rainfall rates of 2”-3” per hour (FOR SEVERAL HOURS) could occur.
Rainfall amounts Friday – Monday:
Northern Midlands and the Upstate: Generally 6” – 10” (some areas 14”+)
Central Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 16”)
Southern Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 14”-17”)
Costal Areas: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 18”)
I would expect Flash Flood Warnings to be issued during the day.
The system will have some wiggle room and there will be tweaks to the forecast.
I’ll have another update before 5AM Saturday.
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