Sunday, February 15, 2015

Winter Weather: UPDATE

The dynamics have changed with the storm and storm track.  It’s looking like the storm gets wound up over the Mississippi valley by Monday and moves quickly through the southeast and up the coast and out by early Wednesday morning. My thinking is this will be more of a cold rain for much of the central and southern midlands, with a chance of freezing rain and sleet Monday night and rain/freezing rain/Light snow far northern midlands.

Here is my current forecast:

Monday

Most of the day will be cloudy, cold and dry.  Winds will pick up a bit during the day making it a raw day.  Rain will develop by late afternoon and evening.  Highs in the upper 30s.

Monday Night

Widespread rain will develop across much of the midlands. There should be an area of slightly warmer air in place (warmer is a relative term here) through the midlands to keep much of the precip rain.  The line between warmer and colder air is very thin.  Meaning, counties north and northeast of Richland and Lexington counties will see a chance of freezing rain and sleet...ice accumulations will be a tenth of an inch at best

This looks more and more likely to be a cold rain event for much of us.

The track of the storm is the biggest factor as to who sees what type of weather and may change over the next 24 hours


Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, breezy with periods of rain, highs in the lower 40s

Wednesday - Friday

Skies clear and it gets cold!  Highs upper 30s Wednesday to Middle 30’s Thursday.  Lows fall to the low teens Wednesday night with wind chills perhaps in the single digits.

Uncertainties continue with this storm, as they tend to do this time of year here in our state.  More updates to follow.
If you have any questions, love to hear them!  Email me:
tmiller@wistv.com




Friday, February 13, 2015

Winter Weather: It's Our Turn!

The long wait for those that love winter weather may be over!  Now, with that said, we won’t have a snow like we saw November 1st however, the next several days will include everything that winter can throw at us.

Here is my current forecast:

Saturday

Enjoy tomorrow!  It will be the warmest day we’ll see for a week.  Southwest winds will be gusty ahead of a cold front giving us much warmer temperatures, near 60˚ by early afternoon.  That comes to an end as a dry cold front moves through the state by evening, temperatures will fall and wind chills could dip to the lower teens as arctic air takes hold.

Sunday

Arctic air and high pressure will lead to a very cold day.  Under sunny skies we’ll be lucky to see upper 30s.  Any wind will cause a wind chill in the teens most of the day (Winds will be from the Northwest 5-10mph.

Monday

This is the point where things get very tricky to forecast.  There are a number of variables that could change and most likely will, having me make changes as we move along.

Cold air will remain in place as I believe a “wedge” will develop late Sunday/Monday morning time frame.  Low pressure will form in the Gulf and begin to spread moisture over the southeast. The air mass over us will be very dry and it will take awhile for the air to moisten as the storm system tries to wet the atmosphere.

Monday Night/Tuesday

The storm system moves out of the Gulf giving us rain and a chance of light freezing rain late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  As temperatures warm (slightly) highs in the lower 40s, it all turns to rain midday Tuesday. Not thinking we’ll have ice accumulation on the roads, the ground remains too warm however, some elevated surfaces (bridges) could receive a light glaze.

As temperatures begin to fall Tuesday night rain could be mixed with snow then turning to all snow briefly (little or no accumulation)

Light snow and flurries will continue into Wednesday morning, little accumulation across the midlands, 1” of snow Chester County northward.  Temperatures will be in the middle 40s as the storm system pulls away from the state.

Considerable Uncertainties

-       The track of the storm
-       Cold air at the surface and in the upper layers of the atmosphere
-       If wedge develops and if it does, how strong

This will clearly be a forecast that will be tweaked over the next 36 hours.  I’ll be updating the blog so bookmark it so you can get the latest information.
If you have any questions, love to hear them!  Email me:
tmiller@wistv.com



Saturday, February 15, 2014

What Is An Earthquake?

What a week!  First, an unprecedented winter storm now an earthquake!
The big question everyone is asking today, is this rare for South Carolina to have earthquakes?  The answer is no, not at all.  The crazy thing is having an earthquake after this huge winter storm we’ve just been through…by the way, there is NO relation to the winter storm and the earthquake however, Mother Nature’s timing is simply hilarious!  The fact is one of our nations most damaging quakes took place in Charleston (7.3 magnitude) in 1886 destroying nearly the entire city. 
What Is An Earthquake?
Let me give you the Readers Digest version. An earthquake is essentially a vibration inside the Earth that produces shock waves resulting from a sudden movement along a fault line (more on that in a second) the energy released in the quake moves in waves outward in widening circles.  It’s like when you throw a rock in a pond and you see the ripples…the strongest “ripple” is near the center and it moves out from there.  The center of the “ripple” is called the epicenter, which is directly above the focus of the earthquake.
The “Weather” (what’s happening in the atmosphere at this point in time) is always moving and changing, we can easily see and study the atmosphere however, the earth itself is also moving and changing, we just can’t see that happening like we can the atmosphere.
The solid part of the Earth is called the  “Lithosphere,” it’s the inorganic part of the Earth comprising of the crust, minerals, rocks, bedrocks and all types of landforms.  The continents have moved, collided, merged and have been torn apart over millions of years, this still continues today.  Believe it or not, it’s only been in the last 50 years or so that scientist have come to understand how all this actually happened. There is undeniable evidence to support the movement of “plates” in the earth, these plates are moving the continents.  There are 16 different “plate” boundaries around the earth, they are movin and groovin VERY slowly…we’ll get into all of that some other blog.
 A “Fault” is a breaking apart of the Earth’s rock structures. There are a number of different types of faults and they are located all over the Earth.  Faulting takes place along a weakness in the crust of the Earth. The “Crust” of the earth varies. Over land goes down about 40 miles over the oceans about 4 to 5 miles.  The weakness is called a fault zone and where the breaking of the rock structure meets is called a fault line.  It’s the movement of the crust along the fault zone that can produce a sudden rupture…the earthquake.
South Carolina and the entire east coast has numerous small and deeply buried faults. Our faults are not like those out west closer to plate boundaries, there, they can name the faults (San Andreas is a good example)  earthquakes out west happen more frequently.  The type of soil plays a factor in whether or not you feel an earthquake. South Carolina is located on bedrock where places such as the Ohio Valley, known for earthquakes (New Madrid Fault) the soil is loose and sandy.
The cause of our earthquake? Several theories are coming out.  I would say it has more to do with our relation to the Appalachian Mountain chain.  It could easily be some break in sedimentation and rocks that caused the Earth to “move” at the point under Edgefield.
Twitter:    @TimMillerSC

Facebook: TimMillerWis-Tv
SOUTH CAROLINA FAULT LINES:

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Winter Storm Update (Tuesday Night)

WINTER STORM WARNING goes into effect tonight at 7PM until Noon Thursday.

I’ve tweaked a few things with our next winter storm however, things are still on track for one of the biggest winter weather events we’ve seen in a long time.

Today was a bit of a surprise with the amount of snow that fell in the northern Midlands.  Cold air remained in place giving us more than the 1”-2” of snow first forecast…my thinking this evening is the freezing rain may not reach the northern Midlands until after 9AM

Here’s the latest:

TONIGHT:

Rain, Rain/Sleet/Snow will end.  A lull between storms will take place this evening through 2A-3A.

TOMORROW MORNING:

I believe things will start out as snow over much of the area.  Could see 1”-2” inch accumulation before snow turns to widespread freezing rain. 

South of Columbia: Light Snow turning to freezing rain by 5AM. 

North of Columbia: Snow will turn to areas of sleet.  Could see accumulation of sleet with as much of 2” very rare event.

TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING:

(Midlands and South)
Freezing rain (heavy at times) look for .50” to 1” of ice accumulation with some areas up to 1.50” becoming windy, cold and raw!

North of Columbia: Sleet, Sleet changing to freezing rain

TOMORROW NIGHT:

(All areas)
Periods of Freezing rain (.10 to .25 additional ice accumulation)


THURSDAY MORNING:

(All areas)
Areas of light Freezing rain, changing to light snow with 1”-2” accumulation possible.


THURSDAY AFTERNOON:

Precipitation ends…storm system moves out. Clearing late

Again, this has the potential to be a very dangerous storm.  Take all precautions      necessary to protect you and your family.  We’ll be on tomorrow morning with the latest.  If you have any questions or see thing you want to share would love to hear from you!

Twitter: @TimMillerSC


Facebook: TimMillerWis-TV

Monday, February 10, 2014

Winter Storm (Monday Night Update)

WINTER STORM WARNING in effect 7PM Tuesday until Noon Thursday.

Everything is on track for one of the biggest winter weather events we’ve seen in a long time.

If you’ve not prepared today, you’ll have until early afternoon tomorrow to get ready.  The potential for a significant ice event is looking more likely.

Here’s my current thinking on how this will play out over the next 48 hours.

TONIGHT:

Periods of Rain

TOMORROW MORNING:

Periods of rain at times mixed with sleet.
(South of Columbia: Rain.  North of Columbia: Rain early, changing to sleet, then snow, accumulation possible..less than 1”)

TOMORROW AFTERNOON:

Periods of Rain.
(South of Columbia: Rain.  North of Columbia: Rain/Sleet, back to snow by late afternoon)

TOMORROW NIGHT:

Rain mixed at times with sleet.
(South of Columbia: Rain.  North of Columbia: Rain/Snow mix)


WEDNESDAY MORNING:

Freezing rain, heavy at times with significant ice accumulation. (Near 1” and higher in places)
(South of Columbia: Rain.  North of Columbia: Snow 1”-2” accumulation)


WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

Freezing Rain with additional ice accumulation. Becoming very windy with snow developing by Thursday morning.
(South of Columbia: Rain/Freezing Rain/Sleet  North of Columbia: Snow with a possible additional 1” accumulation.



THURSDAY MORNING:

Windy and raw. Light snow ending with 1”-2” accumulation possible.

(South of Columbia: Rain/Sleet  North of Columbia: Light snow/flurries)

As you can tell this is a complicated winter event for sure.  Also, things will more than likely change a bit as we move forward.  I’m not expecting any major changes…just may have to adjust some of the timing.  Stay close…stay safe and we’ll get through this together! 

Twitter: @TimMillerSC


Facebook: TimMillerWis-TV

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Winter Storm UPDATE

It looks like it’s going to be a serious weather week coming our way.

I would prepare tomorrow for the potential for a significant winter event for the Midlands and the upstate starting late Monday through early Thursday.

We have two separate systems the will affect us over the next several days. We’ll see every type of winter weather possible the uncertainty still is with the track of the storms and the amount of cold air in place when precipitation begins to fall.

There is no doubt we’ll be under some weather watch/advisory issued either tonight or in the morning.  The 32° line will be above and below Columbia at different times during the next few days…that will determine our weather. The first system comes in Tuesday with the second system on Wednesday.  The system on Wednesday will the strong of the two.

Here are my thoughts as of tonight, with the understanding this can and will change. This outline is for the Midlands (Richland, Lexington, Saluda, Kershaw, Sumter and counties south)

Monday Night After 10PM:

Areas of light rain begins

Tuesday Morning:

Rain mixed with sleet

Tuesday Afternoon:

Periods of Rain

Tuesday Evening:

Rain mixed with sleet

Tuesday Night:

Periods of Rain/Freezing Rain

Wednesday Morning:

Rain/Freezing Rain (Some heavy at times)

Wednesday Night:


Rain/Sleet, Mixed with or changing to snow (accumulation possible)

This is a changing event at times hour by hour.  For the latest please feel free to follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Twitter:  @TimMillerSC

Facebook: TimMillerWis-tv

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Next Winter Storm


The next several days will be one of the most difficult weather forecast to prepare and predict in a long time.  The data coming in on the next storm system has a number of different scenarios that bring Rain, Freezing Rain, Sleet and Snow all within 50 miles of Columbia. 

Here’s what we don’t know: Where the final line is drawn remains to be seen, all it takes is just a few miles from the “line” and two or three degrees in temperature to make all the difference.  Also, the timing is in question…a weak front to our north may push into the Midlands as early as Monday afternoon giving us our first bit of rain.  That would moisten the atmosphere ahead of the main system on Tuesday…giving the storm system a running start by not having to feed the area with moisture first before precipitation begins.

Here’s what we know: This has the potential to be a major (deadly) winter storm for our state and certainly North Carolina.  The big question at the moment…where does the cold air line start and end?  As soon as we know that information we’ll have a much better handle on what type of precipitation we’ll receive from this storm.  New data will be in Sunday morning. It will be very important to stay in touch over the next few days as we prepare for the latest winter punch.

Twitter:   @TimMillerSC

Facebook:  TimMillerWis-TV