Severe Thunderstorm WATCH Until 11PM

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:


CHEROKEE             CHESTER             CHESTERFIELD
DARLINGTON           DILLON              FAIRFIELD
FLORENCE             HORRY               KERSHAW
LANCASTER            LEE                 MARION
MARLBORO             UNION               WILLIAMSBURG

YORK

Remember a WATCH means that conditions are right for the development of

severe thunderstorms.  A WARNING means that a severe storm has been

spotted and you need to take shelter.  Looking for storms to form

over much of the state this evening into tonight.

Get Ready To Rumble!!!!

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT

A slow moving cold front is off to our west and ahead of the front are small disturbances or “shortwaves” leading to instability and forcing in the atmosphere this will form scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The past few afternoons where most storms have been more isolated with limited “shear” (Wind shear is a very quick change in wind speed or direction the higher you go in the atmosphere which is critical for severe storm development) this won’t be the case today as I believe we’ll see batches of strong to severe cells develop by late afternoon.  Models are having a fun time with this meaning they are trying to figure out a consensus with what is becoming a very complex atmospheric environment by late in the day.

The primary threat will damaging winds with large hail.

Storm Prediction Center has the state under a slight risk of severe weather however, don’t let that fool you, the opportunity for some of us to see strong storms is likely. 

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The Gloom Continues!

I know we are all sick and tired of the clouds and rain, I just don’t see it improving until the middle of the week.

You’ll notice its MUCH cool this morning as a cold front has moved through so it feels more like fall this morning.

Here is the weather set up:

Today through Tuesday look for cloudy skies, cool temperatures and periods of rain.  It will become windy at times making it feel chilly and raw.

The cold front will stall out near the coast.  Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will spread moisture into the state with widespread rain developing.  It’s a strong southwest flow of warm, high moisture content in the upper atmosphere.  High pressure behind the front will help produce a northeast wind (this sets up Wedge).  Temperatures will not move much from the 50s day and night. 

Some rain will be heavy at times however, I’m forecasting that we’ll most likely see rain, showers and drizzle.  It will look and feel gross over the next few days.  The heaviest rain will be along the coast where moisture values will be higher.

The Wedge should break by midday Tuesday (maybe earlier) strong high pressure will move in by Wednesday and we’ll begin to see clearing and start some days of drying out and more sunshine.

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More Rain Coming?

This first day in November is a taste of what’s to come this late fall into winter. 

I’m forecasting a wet period over the next several months with more than average storm systems that will move our way giving us above average chances for precipitation.  Temperatures will volley back and forth from cool to warm periods. 

Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast into Georgia today then through the state tonight into Monday.  The Gulf is wide open bringing deep moisture into the southeast that will allow for widespread showers and rain to develop today and Monday.

The heaviest rain will be north of us in the upstate and North Carolina (Flash Flood Watch could be issued for them later today) I’m still going to hold with my forecast from a few days ago, 1.5” to 2” possible Central/Northern Midlands, 1” or less Southern Midlands.

The complicated part (as always) is track of the system.  As of this morning the bulk of the rain remains to our north.  As the system moves north a warm front will pass through tonight, it will become breezy with southwest winds, this will allow warm and very moist air to help fuel the rain and make the atmosphere unstable enough to produce scattered thunderstorms Monday

The cold front will move through late Monday however, I still think this thing will be slow to exit so look for clouds and cool conditions Tuesday (a few showers around) things will greatly improve Wednesday – Friday.

Today:  Cloudy with periods of showers and light rain.  Highs near 70

Tonight: On and off showers and rain.  Lows middle 60s

Monday: Periods of showers and few thunderstorms, warm, breezy and humid, highs middle 70s to upper 70s.

Tuesday: Cloudy and cooler, highs upper 60s

Wednesday – Friday:  Mostly sunny, highs middle 70s, lows middle 50s

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Email: tmiller@wistv.com

***Updates this afternoon

Today's Storm Chance:

UPDATE: Latest On Major Weather Event

FORECAST UPDATE: Dangerous Weather System Next 72 Hours

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY 8:00AM EDT

Latest satellite images show the beginning stages of the upper level Low-pressure system starting to tap deep tropical moisture.  It clearly will lock into Hurricane Joaquin moisture as the storm moves to the north.  This will aid in the development of heavy rain.

I’ve also noticed a small surface Low developing over the SC/GA state line.  This could help develop thunderstorm and or high winds tomorrow.

We need to add this risk of thunderstorms as the air mass becomes unstable.  This would include (although very low) risk of tornadoes.

I believe the wedge-like conditions will break allowing for warmer air to lift into the midlands Saturday and Sunday.  It should be noticeably warmer.

Here is the latest as of Friday evening:

An area of Low pressure in the upper layers of the atmosphere is in South Georgia.  The Low will tap deep tropical moisture.  This is moisture that comes n all the way from the eastern Pacific as well as the Caribbean.

The storm will be slow to move and will produce extremely heavy rainfall over much of South Carolina with the central midlands receiving the brunt of the rain.  The rain along with the wind will be so heavy at times it will cause whiteout conditions.

Expect widespread significant flooding.  Areas that never see flooding may indeed experience serious flooding conditions. Rainfall rates of 2”-3” per hour (FOR SEVERAL HOURS) could occur.

Rainfall amounts Friday – Monday:

Northern Midlands and the Upstate:  Generally 6” – 10” (some areas 14”+)

Central Midlands:  Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 16”)

Southern Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 14”-17”)

Costal Areas: Generally  6” – 12” (some areas 18”)

I would expect Flash Flood Warnings to be issued during the day.

The system will have some wiggle room and there will be tweaks to the forecast.

I’ll have another update before 5AM Saturday.

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Twitter:  TimMillerSC

Email:     tmiller@wistv.com

Major Weather Event Friday-Sunday

HISTORIC WEATHER EVENT COMING TO SOUTH CAROLINA

What has the potential to take place in our state over the next 72 hours is beyond anything I’ve ever seen in my career.

NOW is the time to prepare for a life-threatening conceivable catastrophic rain event.  The potential for Flash Flooding of epic proportion is extremely high.

Here is the set-up:

An area of Low pressure in the upper layers of the atmosphere will move into the southeast, it will position itself in south Georgia by tomorrow afternoon.  The Low will tap deep tropical moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic…this will allow for rain to develop as the storm feeds on the moisture.  The storm will be slow to move and will produce extremely heavy rainfall for hours on end.  A forcing mechanism will feed in to the system providing all it needs to produce torrential rain.

As Hurricane Joaquin moves north, the system will tap some of Joaquin’s moisture as well, again, helping the system produce more rain.  Depending on the track of Joaquin IF it makes landfall in North Carolina, this could add even MORE rain to the forecast (IF that would happen, this would be a cataclysmic event resulting in widespread death and destruction)  My thinking is the Hurricane will remain to our north.  However, just tapping into the moisture from Joaquin will make a bad situation worse.

Expect widespread significant flooding.  Areas that flood with a 2”-4” rainfall from summer storms will be completely underwater with this storm.

The interesting thing is that most all of the models have not shifted from these record rainfall amounts and have been very consistent with each run.

Rainfall amounts Friday – Monday:

Northern Midlands and the Upstate:  Generally 6” – 10” (some areas 14”+)

Central Midlands:  Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 18” – 22”)

Southern Midlands: Generally 6” – 12” (some areas 14”-17”)

Costal Areas: Generally  6” – 12” (some areas 18” – 22”)

Average YEARLY rainfall for Columbia: 49.00”

It is VITAL that you pay close attention to the forecast.  Those that know me…know that I’m not alarmist.  I’ve never forecasted as such. Therefore, when I stress this has the potential to be life-threatening.  Please take this seriously.

There will be many updates with this storm.  I will provide you with the latest information I have. 

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Twitter:  @TimMillerSC

Email: tmiller@wistv.com

7:00PM EDT European Model:  

Welcome To Weather Insider

I've been a weather nut (Geek) all my life!  I was a local weather reporter for WGN-TV Chicago when I was 12 years old and would give the forecast to anyone who would listen!  I should have received my degree in meteorology long ago however, I spend 30 years in radio (started at age 15) and now its time to do the do!  I start at Mississippi State University next week on my road to finally receive my degree!

This blog I hope will do two things.  First, be a great outlet for you to ask questions about the weather so I can work my tail off to find the answers!  Second, to share my thoughts with you on the latest weather model runs, severe weather and general forecast information that you won't find any place else!

Please feel free to ask any question about weather.  No question is silly, now, my answers may be silly or downright crazy and maybe wrong!  : )

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Tim

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